Democracy takes root with elections in 64 countries this year
The year 2024 stands as a pivotal moment for the world’s most robust democracies, serving as the ultimate test for the strength of their democratic institutions. With elections either underway or looming on the horizon in numerous nations, the scrutiny on these institutions has intensified. IBRAHIM ADAM writes about the intricate dynamics surrounding countries that have completed their electoral processes, those still in progress, and those yet to embark on their electoral journeys.
This year, an estimated 64 countries, collectively housing around 2 billion people, are gearing up for general elections. Notable nations in this line-up include the United States, the United Kingdom, Chad, South Africa and India, each wielding significant influence on the global stage. The outcomes of these elections hold profound implications, influencing the trajectories of established democracies and emerging nations alike.
While some elections may be overshadowed by violence, the prevailing trend suggests that most will encounter disruptions, presenting challenges to both security and foreign policy. Issues such as restrictions on opposition candidates, voter apathy and the proliferation of manipulation and disinformation have taken centre stage in many campaigns, prompting concerns regarding the integrity of the electoral process.
The upcoming European Union election carries substantial implications for its member states, influencing policies and alliances within the bloc. Meanwhile, ongoing political unrest in nations like Mali and Burkina Faso presents challenges as efforts to restore civilian governance encounter delays and uncertainties amid military interventions. Recent elections in Indonesia, Bangladesh, Taiwan, Croatia, South Korea, Slovakia, Senegal, Russia, Iran and Pakistan have produced diverse outcomes, underscoring the multifaceted nature of global democracy. Against this backdrop, the international community watches with keen interest, acknowledging the pivotal role elections play in shaping the trajectories of nations and the broader global landscape.
Countries yet to conduct election
India, home to a population of 1.4 billion people, is gearing up for a crucial election in which Prime Minister Narendra Modi seeks a third consecutive five-year term. With over 900 million registered voters set to cast their ballots between April and May, the outcome of the election holds significant implications not only for India but also for regional stability and global affairs. As a key player on the global stage, India’s election will shape its future trajectory, impacting economic development, regional dynamics and its role in addressing pressing global challenges.
The European Union (EU) is preparing for elections to the European Parliament scheduled to take place from 6 to 9 June. With over 400 million voters spread across 27 member countries, this election will see the participation of a significant portion of the EU’s population. Notably, the EU election stands out as the world’s largest transnational election, encompassing a vast geographical area and crossing numerous borders. As voters exercise their democratic rights, they will elect a total of 720 members to represent them in the European Parliament, shaping the future direction of the EU and influencing its policies on various fronts.
The United States is gearing up for its highly anticipated elections scheduled for November 5. With a population of 341 million, the outcome of these elections will have significant implications not only for the nation but also for the global political landscape. The upcoming elections are poised to witness a rematch between President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump, adding another layer of uncertainty to the already dynamic political scenario. With more than 160 million Americans registered to vote, the electorate holds the power to shape the future trajectory of the country. Voters will cast their ballots to choose the 47th President of the United States, who will assume office in the White House for a four-year term starting from January 2025. As the world watches closely, the results of the U.S. elections will undoubtedly shape policies, influence international relations and set the course for the nation’s domestic agenda for years to come.
Latin America is poised for a series of pivotal elections in the coming months, with several countries preparing to cast their votes. On May 5, four nations, including Panama with a population of 4.41 million, will head to the polls, followed by the Dominican Republic on May 19, with a population of 11.5 million. Uruguay, with a population of 3.5 million, will hold its election on June 2, adding to the electoral fervour in the region. Meanwhile, Mexico, with nearly 100 million eligible voters, is gearing up for its presidential election on June 2, marking a historic moment in the country’s political landscape.
Notably, this election presents a milestone as both leading presidential candidates are women: former Mexico City mayor Claudia Sheinbaum Pardo and former senator Xóchitl Gálvez. The ballots will also include votes to fill over 20,000 public positions, underscoring the breadth and significance of this electoral event in shaping Mexico’s future trajectory. As Latin America prepares to embark on these crucial democratic exercises, the outcomes will undoubtedly influence regional dynamics and have lasting implications for the continent’s political landscape.
The United Kingdom braces for a significant electoral showdown as local elections on May 2 set the stage for a potential shift in political dynamics ahead of the next general elections. These local and mayoral elections in England and Wales will determine the leadership of key cities, including London, Birmingham and Manchester, impacting the governance of these urban centres. With a population of 67.9 million, the UK awaits Prime Minister Rishi Sunak’s decision on the timing of the next general elections, anticipated to occur “in the second half” of the year, although a specific date remains undisclosed.
Amid rising discontent over the cost of living crisis and other grievances, polling data suggests a potential shift in power from the ruling Conservative Tory Party, which has held sway in UK politics since 2010, to the Labour Party. As voters gear up to participate in the upcoming elections, these local contests serve as a pivotal gauge of public sentiment and party standing, providing valuable insights into the shifting political landscape of the UK. They not only reflect the current mood of the electorate but also establish the groundwork for future electoral dynamics and strategic manoeuvring among political factions.
The upcoming election in South Africa holds significant importance, being touted as the country’s most crucial electoral event in the past three decades. Since the historic end of apartheid in 1994, the African National Congress (ANC) has maintained governance, with Nelson Mandela becoming the nation’s first Black president. However, amid growing uncertainty, questions arise about the ANC’s ability to retain its majority in this election. According to the Electoral Commission of South Africa, over 26 million South Africans are registered to vote, underscoring the magnitude of participation expected in shaping the nation’s political landscape.
In Rwanda, President Paul Kagame, who played a pivotal role in leading the country out of the genocide, has remained a dominant figure, steering the nation’s course with significant influence. As he seeks a fourth term in the upcoming July 15 election, the population of 13.78 million awaits the outcome. Kagame has previously secured victory in three elections, each time garnering over 90 percent of the vote, cementing his position as a formidable political force in Rwanda.
Ukraine has been grappling with a profound crisis since February 2022, marked by a comprehensive Russian invasion that has resulted in the occupation of its eastern territories. This conflict has prompted the declaration of martial law in Ukraine, temporarily halting electoral processes. Against this backdrop, the term of President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, who assumed office in 2019, officially concluded in March, leaving the country in a state of uncertainty as it navigates through the challenges posed by the ongoing conflict and political transition.
Chad is gearing up for its presidential and legislative elections, anticipated to take place between October and November. However, there are widespread concerns that these elections will be tightly controlled to secure the continued rule of General Mahamat Déby, who assumed power in April 2021 following a military coup triggered by the death of his father, President Idriss Déby. President Idriss Déby had himself seized power in a coup three decades earlier, marking a dynastic transition of power in the country’s leadership.
Tunisia, once hailed as a beacon of democracy in Africa, has witnessed a significant erosion of democratic governance in recent years. Following President Kaïs Saïed’s dissolution of Parliament in 2021 and his subsequent rule by decree, many observers have characterised these actions as an auto-coup, marking a troubling dismantling of democratic institutions by an elected leader. Against this backdrop, Tunisia is preparing for its presidential election scheduled for November 24, amid concerns about the state of democracy and governance in the country.
Namibia is gearing up for one of the most anticipated elections on the African continent, slated to occur in November. With the conclusion of President Hage Geingob’s second and final constitutionally mandated term, the country will embark on the process of electing a new president. This election holds significant implications for the future trajectory of Namibia and will be closely watched both domestically and internationally.
Ghana is poised for a pivotal moment as it prepares for its presidential elections scheduled for December 7. With President Nana Akufo-Addo stepping down after completing his second term in office, the nation is set to witness a historic transition of power. This election will not only determine Ghana’s next leader but also signify the country’s fifth presidential succession since the restoration of democratic multiparty politics in 1992.
Guinea-Bissau braces for another round of elections in December amid a backdrop of political turbulence. The West African coastal nation, with a population of 2 million, finds itself in a familiar cycle of instability, having navigated from one crisis to another in recent years.
Mali’s military junta, despite assurances, postponed the scheduled February 4 election aimed at restoring civilian democratic governance. However, the date was indefinitely postponed in September 2023, citing “technical reasons,” leaving the future of democratic transition uncertain.
In Burkina Faso, elections aimed at reinstating a democratic civilian government, scheduled for July 2024, were deemed “not a priority” by the military junta led by Captain Ibrahim Traoré in September 2023, resulting in their indefinite postponement.
Other countries
Algeria, with a population of 46 million, is anticipating elections in December; Uzbekistan, with a population of 35.4 million, is poised for elections in October; Mozambique, with a population of 34.4 million, is set to hold Presidential and Assembly of the Republic elections on October 9, while Madagascar, with a population of 30.7 million, is preparing for National Assembly elections in May.
Austria’s National Council election is scheduled for September 29, with a population of 9.0 million; Slovakia, with a population of 5.7 million, is yet to decide on the date for the Presidential election for this year; Mauritania’s election will take place on June 22, with a population of 4.9 million, while Panama’s Presidential and National Assembly elections will be decided by a population of 4.5 million people on May 5.
Georgia’s parliamentary elections are scheduled for October 26, while the date for the presidential election is yet to be decided; Mongolia’s election is expected to take place in June, with a population of 3.5 million; Lithuania, with a population of 2.7 million, will hold presidential elections on May 12 and parliamentary elections on October 13. Meanwhile, Namibia, with a population of 2.6 million, is also yet to decide on the dates for the Presidential and National Assembly elections.
Elections conducted this year
Indonesia’s electoral commission has officially declared Prabowo Subianto as the president-elect in a formal ceremony, following the rejection of challenges to his victory by rival candidates by the country’s highest court. Prabowo, aged 72 and a former general with a history of allegations regarding human rights abuses, secured a landslide victory in February’s elections. However, his two opponents contested the results, alleging that the integrity of the vote had been compromised due to state interference and unfair rule changes.
In Bangladesh, Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina secured a fourth term in office in an election that saw the boycott of the Bangladesh Nationalist Party, the country’s primary opposition party. Meanwhile, in Taiwan, voters granted the ruling Democratic Progressive Party an unprecedented third consecutive term, electing pro-sovereignty candidate Lai Ching-te as the island nation’s next president on January 13th.
In Croatia’s April 17 election, a far-right party emerged as a potential kingmaker as the governing conservatives fell short of securing enough seats to form a new government. In South Korea, the legislative elections on April 10, 2024, saw the opposition Democratic Party of Korea (DPK) win 175 seats, while the ruling People Power Party (PPP) secured 108 out of 300 seats in the National Assembly. These election results provided the DPK with an opportunity to counterbalance the legislative power of the incumbent government.
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In Slovakia, nationalist-left government candidate Peter Pellegrini emerged victorious in the presidential election held between March 23 and April 6. This outcome further solidified the influence of pro-Russian Prime Minister Robert Fico over the country. Fico, who assumed power for the fourth time in October, has steered Slovakia’s foreign policy towards more pro-Russian stances and has initiated reforms in criminal law and the media, sparking concerns about the erosion of the rule of law. Pellegrini secured 53.26% of the vote, while his pro-Western opposition counterpart, Ivan Korcok, garnered 46.73%, according to results from 99.66% of voting districts. Although Slovak presidents possess limited executive powers, they can veto laws or contest them in the constitutional court.
In Senegal, opposition candidate Bassirou Diomaye Faye emerged victorious in the March 24 presidential election, securing 54.28% of the votes. Notably, Faye’s win came just 10 days after his release from jail. Former President Macky Sall extended congratulations to Faye, hailing his victory as “a triumph for Senegalese democracy.” At 44 years old, Faye assumes the presidency as Senegal’s youngest leader, marking a significant milestone given his lack of prior experience in holding a national elective office.
In Russia, Vladimir Putin secured his fifth term as president in the March 17 election, with little doubt surrounding his victory, especially after the demise of prominent opposition figure Alexei Navalny in an Arctic Circle prison. This election carried heightened significance as the first since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Putin’s victory was virtually assured, facing only three other candidates who were all endorsed by the Kremlin. He clinched over 87% of the vote, positioning himself for another term at the helm. Putin lauded Russia’s democracy as more transparent than many Western counterparts, underscoring the outcome as a testament to the nation’s electoral process.
Iran witnessed its lowest electoral turnout since the establishment of the Islamic Republic in 1979 during the parliamentary and Assembly of Experts elections held on March 1. With only 25 million out of 61 million eligible voters participating, officials depicted the voter turnout as a triumph against the nation’s perceived adversaries. Despite the diminished participation, the election outcome signified a significant moment in Iran’s political landscape, reflecting the populace’s engagement with the democratic process amidst various internal and external challenges.
Following a contentious election in Pakistan, legislators elected Shehbaz Sharif as the country’s Prime Minister for a second term. The electoral process, held on February 8, was overshadowed by allegations of widespread rigging and delayed results, casting a shadow over the legitimacy of the outcome. Despite these challenges, Sharif’s re-election marks a pivotal moment in Pakistan’s political landscape, highlighting ongoing debates surrounding electoral integrity and democratic governance in the South Asian nation.
“Mega election 2024,” says UN
United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights, Volker Türk, described this year as a ‘mega election year,’ emphasising its significance as a landmark for democracy. In a statement, Türk expressed optimism that most of the elections would likely be conducted with “free of hatred” and respect for the will of the people. This sentiment underscores the importance of upholding democratic principles and ensuring that elections serve as a vehicle for expressing the collective voice of the populace.
“Every election even an imperfect one constitutes an effort to at least formally acknowledge the universal aspiration to democracy,” the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights said, before citing “serious concerns” about polls in several countries. Speaking on Chad, he highlighted with concern the killing of opposition leader Yaya Dillo in the country’s capital, N’Djamena, in February.
“I call for a transparent, timely, and independent investigation and for Chad’s transition ahead of upcoming elections to respect fully, international human rights law,” he added. In the United States, Türk noted that efforts to ensure free and fair elections were underway, despite curbs on postal votes reportedly introduced in 18 states after the 2020 presidential election and expanded in 22 following concerns about voter fraud. The High Commissioner added that equal rights and the value of every citizen’s vote needed to be emphasised, particularly in a context of intense political polarisation.
He also said the Indian election will be unique in scale as he expressed concern about restrictions and discrimination against minorities. “In India, with an electorate of 960 million people, the coming election will be unique in scale. There are concerns about restrictions on civic space, hate speech and discrimination against minorities, especially Muslims.”
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